For example, a 75% (or three in four) chance of an early rainfall onset still means there is a one in four chance that the rainfall onset will be late. She said North Queensland could expect a warmer than average spring. Model outlooks suggest the La Niña is likely to persist until at least the end of the 2020-21 summer. The chance of an early rainfall onset for northern Australia for the 2020–21 wet season is higher than average over most of northern Australia. The long-term median is calculated by averaging the onset date for each year from 1960–2012. "For October to December it's a similar story — maybe slightly less of a signal there, but still above a 70 per cent chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature across most of the tropical north.". The northern rainfall onset occurs when enough rain has fallen to stimulate plant growth after the northern dry season. The northern rainfall onset occurs when enough rainfall has fallen to stimulate plant growth after the tropical dry season. Rainfall maps are updated daily from September to the end of May. map shows the number of days earlier or later than the mean (normal) onset date. It is considered to be approximately the amount of rainfall required to stimulate plant growth. After a patchy and late wet season in north-west Queensland, a cautious sense of optimism is starting to creep in with a higher than average rainfall forecast in the coming months. Forecasting, 29, 150-161, See also: Northern rainfall onset mean onset date, Unless otherwise noted, all maps, graphs and diagrams in this page are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence, This page was created at 17:37 on Friday 30 October 2020 (UTC), © Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532) | CRICOS Provider 02015K | Disclaimer | Privacy | Accessibility, reports and summaries that describe rainfall history. The mercury hit 30.7C in Yeppoon on Wednesday, making it the hottest August day since 2000, when it reached 30.1C. Three maps are provided and all relate to the northern rainfall onset: rainfall totals map, rainfall onset date map and an early or late map. The numbers don’t lie, there’s no doubt it is a lot of rain dropping on Far North Queensland during the wet season.. The rainfall accumlates until the end of May of the following year. Values of 60% and above indicate an increased chance of an early northern rainfall onset; values of 40% and below indicate an increased chance of a late northern rainfall onset. This rainfall will also not necessarily lower the risk of days with elevated fire danger. 'Totals', 'Onset date' and 'Early or late' end-of-season maps are available from each. Station data used are from the Bureau of Meteorology's rainfall network. The climate of Queensland is sub-tropical humid climate with two seasons, a rainy and humid season in summer (October to May) and a relatively dry season between June and October. Eastern and central Australia were forecast to have more rainfall than average between September and November. The ENSO Outlook is at La Niña ALERT, indicating that there is a roughly 70% chance La Niña will develop in the coming months – three times the average likelihood. The maps show years where the July–August average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been below −8 (El Niño), above +8 (La Niña), or in between (neutral). The increased likelihood of La Niña in 2020 is influencing this outlook. One way the Bureau measures the accuracy of its climate models is by comparing how often the real outcomes matched the forecast (as a percentage). La Niña is underway in the tropical Pacific. Forecaster Kimba Wong said the record temperatures aligned with global warming trends. But Ms Wong said how the weather played out would depend on other climate drivers. November to January is likely to be wetter than average for nearly all of Australia (greater than 65% chance in most areas), but drier than average for parts of western Tasmania. A weighted analysis scheme is applied to station data, providing a broad spatial gridded coverage throughout Australia. The 'Early or late?' Average northern rainfall onset dates for El Niño years, La Niña years, neutral and all years (1960–2012), Percent Consistent Rate (or forecast accuracy) 1990–2012. For further information, see this research paper: Dark grey shading on the map represents areas where there are too few weather stations to support an analysis. November rainfall is likely (greater than 65% in many areas) to be above average across most of the eastern two-thirds of the Australian mainland. This concept is similar to a weather forecast, with forecasts for tomorrow being more accurate than one for seven days ahead. "Cooktown, the airport site only goes back 20 years but when you take in a couple of sites, 34.6 was actually their hottest August temperature for over 146 years.". Warmer days for much of the north and west, parts of the interior, and south-east during November to January; warmer nights likely. Meteorologist Felim Hanniffy said it was due to a ridge of high pressure along the east coast, and northerly winds preceding a trough approaching from the west. For immediate updates, please contact the home club or your team manager to find out if matches are still being played today. temperature. On average, nights during this period are likely to be warmer than the long-term average across all of Australia. Cooktown’s weather records only date back 146 years to 1874. 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"So I guess it's something we should maybe expect to happen more and more often, which is not particularly good news.". Drosdowsky, W., and M.C. The outlooks are designed to be used as a tool in risk management and decision-making. These rainfall maps are updated weekly until the end of May each season. View normal onset dates here. The rainfall onset as defined here is different from the.

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